QuantNovaWeekly · Column 2

The scorecard

Every published base rate, measured against the move that actually happened — including the ones that were wrong.

390 graded claims

Claims graded
390
Moved ≥ its own mean
41%
Moved ≥10%
23%

The claim was never a direction — it was a distribution. So the honest test is whether the move came in near the historical mean, not whether a guess was right.

Rows where the actual move fell far below the base rate are the interesting ones: they are where the option market was charging for movement that did not arrive.

TickerReportedBase rate |move|ActualDifferencen
UI2026-08-2114.10%-2.59%-11.51%12
BKE2026-08-203.23%+1.34%-1.89%12
ATHM2026-08-203.25%-1.60%-1.65%12
RERE2026-08-206.78%-11.11%+4.33%12
DAO2026-08-206.14%+1.26%-4.88%12
SCSC2026-08-206.02%+9.67%+3.65%12
MOV2026-08-205.94%-2.47%-3.47%12
HOV2026-08-2015.34%-7.47%-7.87%5
FUTU2026-08-204.28%+3.03%-1.25%12
AAP2026-08-2012.16%-24.55%+12.39%12
ATAT2026-08-205.29%-7.43%+2.14%12
BABA2026-08-206.17%+1.26%-4.91%12
DE2026-08-205.65%+6.94%+1.29%12
NTES2026-08-205.26%-5.85%+0.59%12
WMT2026-08-204.73%-9.15%+4.42%12
OSIS2026-08-208.18%-5.21%-2.97%12
FLO2026-08-204.60%-2.11%-2.49%12
ALMS2026-08-197.62%-8.12%+0.50%9
ADI2026-08-194.27%-0.89%-3.38%12
YMM2026-08-197.84%-1.14%-6.70%12
BULL2026-08-194.20%+2.43%-1.77%3
NDSN2026-08-194.00%+8.00%+4.00%12
BILL2026-08-1916.11%-0.65%-15.46%12
POET2026-08-196.29%-2.48%-3.81%12
WOLF2026-08-1915.18%-9.42%-5.76%3
VIK2026-08-194.32%-7.65%+3.33%9
EL2026-08-199.58%+16.30%+6.72%12
TGT2026-08-198.44%+4.28%-4.16%12
ROST2026-08-195.18%-3.13%-2.05%12
LOW2026-08-192.59%+2.02%-0.57%12
TJX2026-08-192.68%-4.21%+1.53%12
DVLT2026-08-198.15%-23.08%+14.93%12
JBSS2026-08-197.90%-9.24%+1.34%7
FLNG2026-08-193.63%+4.44%+0.81%12
PHVS2026-08-193.68%+0.33%-3.35%12
CADL2026-08-195.63%+2.49%-3.14%12
KC2026-08-195.64%+14.11%+8.47%12
COTY2026-08-196.78%-9.24%+2.46%12
KOD2026-08-198.55%-1.99%-6.56%12
ZIM2026-08-195.67%-3.79%-1.88%12
IMNM2026-08-194.31%+1.89%-2.42%12
INBX2026-08-195.49%+4.79%-0.70%8
BIDU2026-08-184.10%-12.73%+8.63%12
HD2026-08-182.02%-0.12%-1.90%12
MRCY2026-08-1813.30%-3.57%-9.73%12
XP2026-08-184.33%+5.29%+0.96%12
KLAR2026-08-1818.85%-22.81%+3.96%3
AS2026-08-186.98%+3.22%-3.76%10
TOL2026-08-184.35%+4.00%-0.35%12
JKHY2026-08-182.86%+6.49%+3.63%12
KEYS2026-08-187.96%-6.32%-1.64%12
RNW2026-08-183.71%+0.00%-3.71%12
IQ2026-08-186.73%-7.52%+0.79%12
IHS2026-08-187.12%+0.00%-7.12%12
HSAI2026-08-1815.32%-5.31%-10.01%12
CAAP2026-08-184.33%-2.92%-1.41%12
AUNA2026-08-184.02%+0.18%-3.84%9
ZBIO2026-08-185.39%+2.46%-2.93%7
AVBP2026-08-183.76%+3.48%-0.28%11
LZB2026-08-188.22%-16.95%+8.73%12
DRTS2026-08-184.20%+2.26%-1.94%12
VNET2026-08-1810.49%-16.92%+6.43%12
BZ2026-08-186.23%+1.61%-4.62%12
ANNX2026-08-175.58%-0.19%-5.39%12
BBW2026-08-1711.55%-2.35%-9.20%12
MNTS2026-08-17-12.40%
PNRG2026-08-174.95%+5.84%+0.89%2
XMAX2026-08-17-2.21%
DOYU2026-08-175.93%+1.06%-4.87%12
FN2026-08-1711.41%-19.38%+7.97%12
NU2026-08-136.04%+12.32%+6.28%12
AMAT2026-08-135.31%-5.12%-0.19%12
TPR2026-08-137.42%+0.46%-6.96%12
WWW2026-08-1313.73%+16.45%+2.72%12
GMRS2026-08-13+3.50%
YSWY2026-08-13+15.04%
NTES2026-08-135.26%-1.18%-4.08%12
PSFE2026-08-1318.41%+15.14%-3.27%12
NU2026-08-136.04%+12.32%+6.28%12
WWW2026-08-1313.73%+10.08%-3.65%12
TPR2026-08-137.42%-16.49%+9.07%12
RNW2026-08-133.71%+0.00%-3.71%12
CAAP2026-08-134.33%-1.65%-2.68%12
AEBI2026-08-135.06%-2.16%-2.90%4
YSWY2026-08-13+11.29%
KLC2026-08-1319.71%-46.17%+26.46%7
AEBI2026-08-135.06%+5.39%+0.33%4
CAAP2026-08-134.33%-1.65%-2.68%12
MH2026-08-1314.44%+16.98%+2.54%3
RNW2026-08-133.71%+0.00%-3.71%12
GMRS2026-08-13+8.55%
ARCO2026-08-135.29%+3.04%-2.25%12
NOMD2026-08-134.62%+5.61%+0.99%12
ALH2026-08-135.75%-0.58%-5.17%3
AVAH2026-08-1315.39%+24.75%+9.36%12
DLO2026-08-1313.99%-4.00%-9.99%12
DLO2026-08-1313.99%-0.77%-13.22%12
STNE2026-08-138.76%-6.65%-2.11%12
LGN2026-08-1311.73%-3.36%-8.37%3
GLOB2026-08-1311.45%-8.81%-2.64%12
STNE2026-08-138.76%-4.50%-4.26%12
YETI2026-08-138.50%-10.56%+2.06%12
BIRK2026-08-136.93%+7.10%+0.17%11
BILI2026-08-136.32%-0.97%-5.35%12
ALH2026-08-135.75%-1.70%-4.05%3
NOMD2026-08-134.62%+5.61%+0.99%12
BN2026-08-133.53%-1.88%-1.65%7
AIT2026-08-132.81%+1.51%-1.30%12
BAP2026-08-131.26%+3.80%+2.54%12
MWH2026-08-13+6.35%
ARCO2026-08-135.29%+0.13%-5.16%12
AVAH2026-08-1315.39%+24.75%+9.36%12
MWH2026-08-13+8.77%
YETI2026-08-138.50%-10.56%+2.06%12
GLOB2026-08-1311.45%-8.81%-2.64%12
AIT2026-08-132.81%+1.51%-1.30%12
BIRK2026-08-136.93%+11.59%+4.66%11
LGN2026-08-1311.73%-7.92%-3.81%3
BAP2026-08-131.26%+2.99%+1.73%12
BN2026-08-133.53%+0.94%-2.59%7
AMAT2026-08-135.31%-5.12%-0.19%12
MH2026-08-1314.44%+12.93%-1.51%3
PSFE2026-08-1318.41%-16.06%-2.35%12
KLC2026-08-1319.71%-43.97%+24.26%7
COHR2026-08-1210.70%-7.99%-2.71%12
KE2026-08-1211.24%+3.33%-7.91%12
EQPT2026-08-126.46%+3.53%-2.93%2
EAT2026-08-127.79%-2.96%-4.83%12
KTB2026-08-129.71%+8.90%-0.81%12
REZI2026-08-1211.02%-15.49%+4.47%12
EYE2026-08-1212.16%-13.64%+1.48%12
DOX2026-08-123.24%+2.04%-1.20%12
OCTV2026-08-121.17%-2.70%+1.53%1
TBBB2026-08-125.68%+16.31%+10.63%8
GO2026-08-1213.49%+6.19%-7.30%12
PLGO2026-08-125.50%-6.46%+0.96%12
HSAI2026-08-1215.32%+1.79%-13.53%12
DAO2026-08-126.14%+1.82%-4.32%12
AMZE2026-08-1219.41%-3.29%-16.12%2
LESL2026-08-1225.41%-41.67%+16.26%12
HSAI2026-08-1215.32%+1.79%-13.53%12
COHR2026-08-1210.70%-7.99%-2.71%12
BHF2026-08-123.91%-0.47%-3.44%12
CSCO2026-08-125.51%-8.40%+2.89%12
GO2026-08-1213.49%+9.87%-3.62%12
STUB2026-08-1215.69%-6.23%-9.46%3
OCTV2026-08-121.17%-2.70%+1.53%1
PFGC2026-08-124.03%-2.73%-1.30%12
AMCR2026-08-125.18%-0.39%-4.79%12
KE2026-08-1211.24%+3.54%-7.70%12
DAO2026-08-126.14%+1.82%-4.32%12
PLGO2026-08-125.50%-6.46%+0.96%12
ENS2026-08-127.28%+5.71%-1.57%12
AMCR2026-08-125.18%-1.77%-3.41%12
PFGC2026-08-124.03%-5.61%+1.58%12
EAT2026-08-127.79%+11.07%+3.28%12
REZI2026-08-1211.02%-20.42%+9.40%12
BHF2026-08-123.36%-0.47%-2.89%12
VIPS2026-08-126.02%-8.11%+2.09%12
KTB2026-08-129.71%+5.74%-3.97%12
EYE2026-08-1212.16%-11.56%-0.60%12
STUB2026-08-1215.69%-10.07%-5.62%3
DOX2026-08-123.33%+2.04%-1.29%12
NBIS2026-08-128.32%+34.14%+25.82%6
ENS2026-08-127.28%+6.00%-1.28%12
EQPT2026-08-126.46%+8.41%+1.95%2
VIPS2026-08-126.02%-8.11%+2.09%12
RDNW2026-08-1215.57%-4.04%-11.53%12
AMZE2026-08-1219.41%-3.29%-16.12%2
TBBB2026-08-125.68%+16.31%+10.63%8
NBIS2026-08-128.32%+31.99%+23.67%6
TECH2026-08-116.84%+0.11%-6.73%12
SMCI2026-08-1113.11%+19.02%+5.91%12
SE2026-08-1112.81%+11.59%-1.22%12
CAH2026-08-115.45%-2.54%-2.91%12
RXT2026-08-1116.02%+6.67%-9.35%12
VSTS2026-08-1118.45%+2.09%-16.36%10
VG2026-08-1113.84%-3.79%-10.05%6
OGN2026-08-119.49%+0.29%-9.20%12
ARMK2026-08-115.00%+8.54%+3.54%12
CAVA2026-08-118.38%+12.81%+4.43%12
ONON2026-08-118.36%-20.29%+11.93%12
PAGS2026-08-114.37%-3.96%-0.41%12
SFD2026-08-114.88%-6.96%+2.08%6
CCO2026-08-114.26%+0.00%-4.26%12
LEGN2026-08-113.38%+5.66%+2.28%12
IFS2026-08-112.63%-6.04%+3.41%12
QXO2026-08-112.97%-2.28%-0.69%6
SWX2026-08-112.81%+1.78%-1.03%12
MRX2026-08-114.95%+17.47%+12.52%8
HRB2026-08-116.89%+16.09%+9.20%12
NVRI2026-08-117.95%-5.21%-2.74%12
ECX2026-08-116.23%+0.00%-6.23%12
CRWV2026-08-1113.91%+19.28%+5.37%5
LITE2026-08-118.90%+13.63%+4.73%12
HUYA2026-08-117.31%-2.06%-5.25%12
AGRO2026-08-114.89%-3.83%-1.06%7
BGS2026-08-1112.92%+4.99%-7.93%12
LITE2026-08-118.90%+13.63%+4.73%12
SMCI2026-08-1113.11%+19.02%+5.91%12
TECH2026-08-116.84%+0.11%-6.73%12
TME2026-08-118.84%-11.92%+3.08%12
ARMK2026-08-115.00%+8.54%+3.54%12
RXT2026-08-1116.02%-8.03%-7.99%12
MRX2026-08-114.95%+17.47%+12.52%8
SWX2026-08-112.49%+1.78%-0.71%12
OGN2026-08-119.49%+0.29%-9.20%12
CAH2026-08-115.45%+1.30%-4.15%12
SE2026-08-1112.81%+14.56%+1.75%12
QXO2026-08-112.97%-2.28%-0.69%6
CAVA2026-08-118.38%+14.24%+5.86%12
VG2026-08-1113.84%-7.29%-6.55%6
HRB2026-08-116.89%+16.09%+9.20%12
MIDD2026-08-115.21%-7.91%+2.70%12
TME2026-08-118.84%-11.92%+3.08%12
LEGN2026-08-113.38%+5.66%+2.28%12
CRWV2026-08-1113.91%+22.16%+8.25%5
SFD2026-08-114.88%-2.29%-2.59%6
IFS2026-08-112.63%-6.04%+3.41%12
CCO2026-08-114.00%+0.00%-4.00%12
ECX2026-08-116.23%+0.00%-6.23%12
AGRO2026-08-114.89%-3.83%-1.06%7
PAGS2026-08-114.37%-3.96%-0.41%12
RDNW2026-08-1115.57%-1.09%-14.48%12
VSTS2026-08-1118.45%+2.09%-16.36%10
NVRI2026-08-117.95%-7.91%-0.04%12
HUYA2026-08-117.31%-2.06%-5.25%12
MIDD2026-08-115.21%-7.91%+2.70%12
BGS2026-08-1112.92%+4.99%-7.93%12
ONON2026-08-118.36%-20.29%+11.93%12
NIQ2026-08-109.06%+41.95%+32.89%3
NUS2026-08-109.28%-5.44%-3.84%12
ACH2026-08-1015.39%-50.00%+34.61%12
CNDT2026-08-106.91%-8.24%+1.33%12
HFFG2026-08-1011.17%+14.10%+2.93%7
INSW2026-08-103.71%-2.18%-1.53%12
SDRL2026-08-103.58%+8.14%+4.56%12
NIQ2026-08-109.06%+41.95%+32.89%3
ACM2026-08-103.51%-8.53%+5.02%12
HIMS2026-08-1010.89%-3.97%-6.92%12
SPG2026-08-103.45%-0.46%-2.99%12
AAON2026-08-1010.28%-3.88%-6.40%12
MNDY2026-08-1014.74%-4.84%-9.90%12
ACM2026-08-103.51%-8.53%+5.02%12
JBS2026-08-103.70%-2.91%-0.79%3
DDS2026-08-105.99%+5.54%-0.45%12
AMTM2026-08-108.37%-9.45%+1.08%7
RDNT2026-08-108.02%+6.76%-1.26%12
CRC2026-08-105.34%+3.21%-2.13%12
KSPI2026-08-101.66%+4.10%+2.44%9
KSPI2026-08-101.66%+4.10%+2.44%9
NESR2026-08-108.93%+19.99%+11.06%7
INSW2026-08-103.71%-2.18%-1.53%12
SPG2026-08-103.45%-0.46%-2.99%12
BALY2026-08-104.84%+5.22%+0.38%6
RDNT2026-08-108.02%+6.76%-1.26%12
IHRT2026-08-1014.37%-21.56%+7.19%12
BZH2026-08-1010.41%+0.33%-10.08%12
WBTN2026-08-1024.86%-6.83%-18.03%8
MNDY2026-08-1014.74%-4.84%-9.90%12
TTEC2026-08-1016.11%-32.16%+16.05%12
HIMS2026-08-1010.89%-3.97%-6.92%12
NIU2026-08-1016.86%-17.07%+0.21%1
PIII2026-08-1022.09%-3.59%-18.50%12
CNDT2026-08-106.91%-8.24%+1.33%12
NUS2026-08-109.28%-5.44%-3.84%12
HFFG2026-08-1011.17%+14.10%+2.93%7
BKKT2026-08-1012.45%-3.66%-8.79%12
ACH2026-08-1015.39%-50.00%+34.61%12
DOLE2026-08-104.95%-6.15%+1.20%12
FERG2026-08-105.56%+2.76%-2.80%12
FERG2026-08-105.56%+2.76%-2.80%12
BKKT2026-08-1012.45%-3.66%-8.79%12
AAON2026-08-1010.28%-3.88%-6.40%12
IHRT2026-08-1014.37%-21.56%+7.19%12
NESR2026-08-108.93%+23.33%+14.40%7
SGRY2026-08-107.36%+2.70%-4.66%12
PIII2026-08-1022.09%-3.59%-18.50%12
BALY2026-08-104.84%+5.22%+0.38%6
NIU2026-08-1016.86%-17.07%+0.21%1
TTEC2026-08-1016.11%-25.75%+9.64%12
WBTN2026-08-1024.86%-6.83%-18.03%8
BZH2026-08-108.17%+0.33%-7.84%12
DOLE2026-08-104.95%-6.15%+1.20%12
SGRY2026-08-107.36%+2.70%-4.66%12
SDRL2026-08-103.58%+8.14%+4.56%12
CRC2026-08-105.34%+3.21%-2.13%12
DDS2026-08-105.99%+5.54%-0.45%12
AMTM2026-08-108.37%-9.45%+1.08%7
JBS2026-08-103.70%-2.91%-0.79%3
PPL2026-08-071.33%+2.43%+1.10%12
TTWO2026-08-075.22%+6.04%+0.82%12
VST2026-08-072.48%-0.56%-1.92%12
RSG2026-08-062.15%+2.37%+0.22%12
MCHP2026-08-064.84%+13.89%+9.05%12
NET2026-08-0611.55%+5.57%-5.98%12
LNG2026-08-063.08%+4.32%+1.24%12
SRE2026-08-063.18%-0.37%-2.81%12
TEAM2026-08-0610.21%+35.31%+25.10%12
RKT2026-08-067.02%+3.78%-3.24%12
TWLO2026-08-0611.15%+24.89%+13.74%12
ABNB2026-08-065.30%+17.43%+12.13%12
MNST2026-08-065.39%-4.04%-1.35%12
ZTS2026-08-067.05%+3.87%-3.18%12
AKAM2026-08-0612.33%-6.76%-5.57%12
WBD2026-08-066.25%+1.66%-4.59%12
PH2026-08-065.04%+7.31%+2.27%12
HWM2026-08-067.08%-0.58%-6.50%12
DDOG2026-08-0611.95%-19.03%+7.08%12
COP2026-08-062.15%+1.50%-0.65%12
CEG2026-08-066.28%-1.52%-4.76%12
AIG2026-08-063.28%-1.49%-1.79%12
CELH2026-08-0611.49%-18.46%+6.97%12
RMD2026-08-067.32%-5.06%-2.26%12
DKNG2026-08-066.97%+8.39%+1.42%12
ATI2026-08-068.95%+8.93%-0.02%12
TRGP2026-08-062.99%+3.12%+0.13%12
ROKU2026-08-0614.15%+2.03%-12.12%12
BDX2026-08-065.48%+3.76%-1.72%12
FISV2026-08-069.52%+0.00%-9.52%12
KVUE2026-08-065.12%-2.49%-2.63%12
ED2026-08-061.14%-0.89%-0.25%12
AFL2026-08-064.22%-1.62%-2.60%12
RL2026-08-066.20%+3.95%-2.25%12
KDP2026-08-063.66%-1.24%-2.42%12
USFD2026-08-063.89%+6.45%+2.56%12
ALB2026-08-052.88%+5.54%+2.66%12
PSX2026-08-052.85%-1.62%-1.23%12
CDE2026-08-057.56%-10.21%+2.65%12
WDC2026-08-055.93%-13.03%+7.10%12
CRCL2026-08-0516.22%+0.05%-16.17%4
UBER2026-08-055.38%-5.29%-0.09%12
TTMI2026-08-057.07%+3.89%-3.18%12
ALL2026-08-052.53%+3.98%+1.45%12
CVS2026-08-055.61%-5.08%-0.53%12
SNDK2026-08-057.97%-6.81%-1.16%5
HONA2026-08-05-23.16%
DASH2026-08-056.80%+2.89%-3.91%12
EXPE2026-08-0511.99%-4.09%-7.90%12
OXY2026-08-053.79%+4.14%+0.35%12
LLY2026-08-057.87%+4.86%-3.01%12
MCK2026-08-054.33%-0.67%-3.66%12
HUBS2026-08-057.94%-19.10%+11.16%12
GPN2026-08-055.86%-0.87%-4.99%12
FLUT2026-08-056.30%-11.48%+5.18%9
KHC2026-08-052.76%-3.42%+0.66%12
CDW2026-08-057.21%-9.03%+1.82%12
ATO2026-08-051.44%-0.13%-1.31%12
MELI2026-08-057.97%-4.81%-3.16%12
CF2026-08-052.56%+0.02%-2.54%12
VSH2026-08-056.56%-14.59%+8.03%12
XYZ2026-08-059.77%-6.15%-3.62%12
DIS2026-08-056.84%+3.65%-3.19%12
MDLN2026-08-055.46%-12.79%+7.33%2
MET2026-08-052.61%+3.83%+1.22%12
MKSI2026-08-055.66%-6.96%+1.30%12
GFS2026-08-056.66%-4.92%-1.74%12
COR2026-08-054.88%+3.57%-1.31%12
SHOP2026-08-0512.79%+16.98%+4.19%12
APP2026-08-0516.83%-19.66%+2.83%12
MSI2026-08-055.50%+8.20%+2.70%12
AXON2026-08-0514.08%-14.28%+0.20%12
O2026-08-051.45%-0.54%-0.91%12
TOST2026-08-0410.30%+2.93%-7.37%12
FIS2026-08-044.57%-1.16%-3.41%12
SYY2026-08-043.62%-2.58%-1.04%12
ROK2026-08-046.93%-7.43%+0.50%12
PEG2026-08-041.69%-0.46%-1.23%12
BKNG2026-08-043.99%+6.56%+2.57%12
MCD2026-08-042.15%+1.17%-0.98%12
TDG2026-08-044.56%-0.82%-3.74%12
CAT2026-08-045.00%+5.60%+0.60%12
CMI2026-08-044.51%-1.99%-2.52%12
GILD2026-08-044.07%-2.58%-1.49%12
DUK2026-08-041.49%-0.01%-1.48%12
SPCX2026-08-04-13.61%
GWW2026-08-044.26%-5.16%+0.90%12
SPOT2026-08-0410.08%-1.68%-8.40%12
KMB2026-08-043.08%+3.73%+0.65%12
DVN2026-08-042.84%-4.45%+1.61%12
AMGN2026-08-045.52%+4.57%-0.95%12
APO2026-08-043.93%+2.92%-1.01%12
PFE2026-08-042.30%+1.52%-0.78%12
AMD2026-08-048.00%-7.04%-0.96%12
EOG2026-08-041.90%-6.47%+4.57%12
MRK2026-08-043.27%+0.18%-3.09%12
EMR2026-08-045.42%+2.29%-3.13%12
PINS2026-08-0413.46%-8.68%-4.78%12
ANET2026-08-049.97%+3.57%-6.40%12
AME2026-08-043.66%+4.22%+0.56%12
Q2026-08-044.93%+6.28%+1.35%3
ADM2026-08-042.86%+2.32%-0.54%12
W2026-08-0410.61%+29.97%+19.36%12
ENTG2026-08-046.12%+15.46%+9.34%12
MPC2026-08-044.34%+1.82%-2.52%12
WAT2026-08-046.64%+5.69%-0.95%12
NRG2026-08-046.76%-15.48%+8.72%12
IDXX2026-08-048.22%+3.57%-4.65%12
CPNG2026-08-047.54%-4.65%-2.89%12
PLTR2026-08-0314.26%+29.45%+15.19%12

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