QuantNovaWeekly · Column 1

Earnings base rates for the week ahead

How far each name actually moved after its last twelve prints — or after however many it has — which way it went, and how recent the sample is.

Scan of 2026-08-23 · 64 names · 14 tradeable

Direction is close to a coin flip almost everywhere. What is consistent is move size. Those are different claims, and conflating them is how people lose money on earnings.

A large historical move is not an edge — the option market prices that move too. The question is never whether a name will move, but whether it will move more than the chain is charging for.

Worth a look: big movers you can actually trade

Every name below moves hard on earnings and carries a chain deep enough to open and close a position in: at least 15 listed strikes, 1,000 contracts of open interest around the money, and a round-trip spread inside 15% of the premium. Sorted by historical move, but read the difference column first — that is the history minus what the chain is charging, and it is the only column that says whether the price is worth paying.

TickerReportsTimingPriceMean |move|ImpliedDifferenceATM OIn
P2026-08-26after close$108.5514.83%18.33%-3.50%2,07412
IREN2026-08-27after close$41.8814.70%13.72%+0.98%9,83712
RBRK2026-08-27after close$100.0911.73%13.39%-1.66%1,9759
MRVL2026-08-27after close$237.0411.61%10.76%+0.85%9,46112
PVH2026-08-24unconfirmed$78.5010.31%13.69%-3.38%1,27112
SMTC2026-08-25after close$124.0910.25%20.99%-10.74%3,31112
PDD2026-08-24before open$88.389.84%7.72%+2.12%5,92612
BBWI2026-08-26before open$19.459.61%12.08%-2.47%2,23912
BOX2026-08-25after close$32.918.62%11.17%-2.55%1,14012
DKS2026-08-24unconfirmed$183.238.03%12.33%-4.30%3,31212
CRWD2026-08-26after close$191.956.33%9.44%-3.11%3,31112
CRM2026-08-26after close$209.175.62%7.98%-2.36%4,30312
SJM2026-08-26before open$124.325.48%7.28%-1.80%2,07812
NVDA2026-08-26after close$214.724.84%6.11%-1.27%44,76412

A positive difference means the history is bigger than the price being asked for it; a negative one means the chain is already charging for more movement than the name has historically delivered. Neither is a recommendation — the difference is measured against at most twelve quarters, and one quarter outside that range settles it either way.

Every name reporting, tradeable or not

TickerTimingPriceMean |move|≥5%≥10%UpnNewest in sample
2026-08-24 — 7 names
PICSafter close$10.6019.16%100%100%0%12026-06-03
GOTUunconfirmed$1.6814.65%75%50%38%82026-03-05
PVHunconfirmed$78.5010.31%67%42%42%122026-06-03
PDDbefore open$88.389.84%58%50%58%122026-05-27
DKSunconfirmed$183.238.03%50%33%42%122026-05-27
JOYYunconfirmed$73.616.00%50%25%67%122026-05-25
XPEVbefore open$12.195.56%50%17%42%122026-05-28
2026-08-25 — 13 names
SLQTbefore open$0.8321.72%75%67%42%122026-05-05
KSSunconfirmed$17.6014.49%75%50%42%122026-05-28
ANFunconfirmed$109.0112.60%67%42%50%122026-05-27
SMTCafter close$124.0910.25%67%58%67%122026-05-26
NCNOafter close$20.629.82%67%50%42%122026-05-27
WSMbefore open$237.588.92%58%33%50%122026-05-21
BOXafter close$32.918.62%75%42%58%122026-05-26
MZTIbefore open$111.637.56%75%33%33%122026-05-04
ZMafter close$107.436.83%67%25%42%122026-05-21
FIVEunconfirmed$250.246.79%58%42%58%122026-06-03
INTUafter close$367.006.44%58%17%50%122026-05-20
HEIafter close$355.045.78%58%17%67%122026-05-27
JKSbefore open$15.925.64%42%25%50%122026-04-29
2026-08-26 — 24 names
WOOFunconfirmed$2.8420.26%92%75%58%122026-06-03
PLABbefore open$30.5115.40%83%58%58%122026-05-28
Pafter close$108.5514.83%75%75%42%122026-05-27
VSXYunconfirmed$85.3913.47%75%50%42%122026-06-02
OKTAafter close$135.1413.21%83%58%67%122026-05-28
PAHCafter close$36.3211.39%67%42%75%122026-05-06
URBNafter close$74.2410.32%75%50%58%122026-05-20
NTNXafter close$67.649.99%67%42%58%122026-05-27
DYbefore open$392.959.93%67%33%58%122026-05-27
BBWIbefore open$19.459.61%83%33%33%122026-05-27
BURLunconfirmed$326.508.67%75%25%50%122026-05-28
VEEVafter close$247.907.31%67%17%50%122026-06-03
SNPSafter close$397.876.83%42%17%25%122026-05-27
CRWDafter close$191.956.33%50%25%67%122026-06-03
CRMafter close$209.175.62%25%17%50%122026-05-27
SJMbefore open$124.325.48%33%17%50%122026-06-09
HPQafter close$29.715.35%42%17%42%122026-05-27
Aafter close$159.005.05%42%8%58%122026-05-27
NVDAafter close$214.724.84%42%8%42%122026-05-20
DCIbefore open$93.254.84%42%8%67%122026-06-02
SFLbefore open$12.394.76%42%8%42%122026-05-12
OLLIunconfirmed$76.074.34%33%8%75%122026-06-03
NATbefore open$6.974.01%33%0%25%122026-05-27
AFYAunconfirmed$14.333.73%33%8%92%122026-08-13
2026-08-27 — 20 names
ESTCafter close$85.9416.26%92%92%50%122026-05-28
IRENafter close$41.8814.70%75%50%67%122026-05-08
GAPafter close$19.8013.98%83%58%75%122026-05-28
AFRMafter close$77.0313.97%75%67%50%122026-05-07
CHAunconfirmed$10.8111.98%75%50%50%42026-05-28
RBRKafter close$100.0911.73%56%44%33%92026-06-04
MRVLafter close$237.0411.61%92%50%42%122026-05-27
PDafter close$12.329.83%67%33%42%122026-05-28
Safter close$21.199.73%83%50%33%122026-05-28
DGbefore open$123.418.79%67%33%42%122026-06-02
TITNbefore open$20.188.73%75%42%50%122026-06-09
CSIQbefore open$14.558.55%58%42%33%122026-05-14
ULTAafter close$521.468.29%67%42%50%122026-06-02
LUCKafter close$6.807.96%58%50%42%122026-05-06
WDAYafter close$200.017.60%75%33%50%122026-05-21
BBYbefore open$85.897.58%58%33%58%122026-05-28
BILIbefore open$17.066.32%58%25%33%122026-05-19
HRLbefore open$23.886.03%42%25%42%122026-05-28
HQYbefore open$105.414.98%42%8%58%122026-05-28
ADSKafter close$253.833.92%33%0%58%122026-05-28

What these numbers cannot be used for

These columns are generated by QuantNova, which records the reasoning behind every trading decision and scores it afterwards — the same way this page scores itself.

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