QuantNovaWeekly · Column 2

The scorecard

Every published base rate, measured against the move that actually happened — including the ones that were wrong.

386 graded claims

Claims graded
386
Moved ≥ its own mean
35%
Moved ≥10%
24%

The claim was never a direction — it was a distribution. So the honest test is whether the move came in near the historical mean, not whether a guess was right.

Rows where the actual move fell far below the base rate are the interesting ones: they are where the option market was charging for movement that did not arrive.

TickerReportedBase rate |move|ActualDifferencen
WSE2026-10-15—-8.58%——
WHR2026-10-159.48%+0.94%-8.54%12
USB2026-10-152.40%+2.01%-0.39%12
SFNC2026-10-153.41%-0.85%-2.56%12
SCHW2026-10-153.32%-2.73%-0.59%12
PNC2026-10-151.94%-0.40%-1.54%12
PLD2026-10-153.45%-2.70%-0.75%12
MRSH2026-10-152.84%+4.56%+1.72%12
MAN2026-10-158.08%-15.82%+7.74%12
JBHT2026-10-156.64%-2.78%-3.86%12
IRDM2026-10-1510.10%-4.41%-5.69%12
INDB2026-10-153.18%+3.63%+0.45%12
IBKR2026-10-154.18%-3.88%-0.30%12
HRI2026-10-158.43%-1.25%-7.18%12
FHN2026-10-153.09%+0.84%-2.25%12
CNS2026-10-152.96%+0.94%-2.02%12
CMC2026-10-154.68%+0.12%-4.56%12
BNY2026-10-153.01%+3.23%+0.22%12
BJRI2026-10-158.19%-0.29%-7.90%12
BANF2026-10-153.36%+2.15%-1.21%12
BALY2026-10-157.91%-2.98%-4.93%7
AA2026-10-154.85%+2.55%-2.30%12
WAFD2026-10-143.67%+0.37%-3.30%12
STT2026-10-143.14%-4.14%+1.00%12
MS2026-10-143.58%-2.75%-0.83%12
HOMB2026-10-142.44%+2.05%-0.39%12
FAST2026-10-145.42%+1.11%-4.31%12
CBSH2026-10-141.93%+2.34%+0.41%12
BLK2026-10-143.47%+0.72%-2.75%12
BAC2026-10-142.46%-4.76%+2.30%12
ALOY2026-10-1413.67%-0.60%-13.07%1
WFC2026-10-134.31%-3.10%-1.21%12
UNH2026-10-137.50%-0.20%-7.30%12
JPM2026-10-132.54%-0.86%-1.68%12
JNJ2026-10-131.85%-5.73%+3.88%12
GS2026-10-132.86%-0.23%-2.63%12
FBK2026-10-133.20%-4.21%+1.01%12
DPZ2026-10-134.09%-4.76%+0.67%12
C2026-10-133.08%-5.60%+2.52%12
AZZ2026-10-134.36%+0.69%-3.67%12
HIFS2026-10-09—+0.63%——
DAL2026-10-096.27%+0.04%-6.23%12
TLRY2026-10-0810.02%-3.49%-6.53%12
PEP2026-10-083.51%+3.73%+0.22%12
ODC2026-10-08—+1.91%——
KARO2026-10-087.17%+0.79%-6.38%12
HELE2026-10-0813.35%+3.91%-9.44%12
NRIX2026-10-074.85%-1.73%-3.12%12
LEVI2026-10-077.23%-2.36%-4.87%12
APLD2026-10-0713.92%+0.17%-13.75%12
WS2026-10-069.74%-6.89%-2.85%10
STZ2026-10-064.35%+2.35%-2.00%12
RPM2026-10-065.62%+3.16%-2.46%12
PENG2026-10-0618.81%+13.08%-5.73%12
NEOG2026-10-0612.53%-2.34%-10.19%12
LW2026-10-0612.08%+7.49%-4.59%12
APOG2026-10-069.97%+12.17%+2.20%12
MKC2026-10-054.45%+1.95%-2.50%12
LUXE2026-09-1610.33%+23.22%+12.89%12
LEN2026-09-164.41%+1.71%-2.70%12
FDX2026-09-165.69%-0.77%-4.92%12
ALMU2026-09-1613.96%-14.04%+0.08%4
LAES2026-09-15—-5.60%——
GIS2026-09-152.99%+0.93%-2.06%12
FPS2026-09-15—+9.50%——
PLAY2026-09-1410.60%-19.01%+8.41%12
CBRL2026-09-146.30%+2.12%-4.18%12
ANAB2026-09-117.13%+0.45%-6.68%12
SHOE2026-09-106.75%-5.03%-1.72%12
ORCL2026-09-1012.50%-1.74%-10.76%12
LPTH2026-09-108.38%-4.96%-3.42%12
FEIM2026-09-1016.83%+38.87%+22.04%5
CPRT2026-09-103.98%-2.60%-1.38%12
ADBE2026-09-108.07%+1.37%-6.70%12
SUNB2026-09-095.67%+5.91%+0.24%2
SIG2026-09-099.82%+23.96%+14.14%12
SAIL2026-09-0910.19%-1.18%-9.01%5
RH2026-09-0915.58%-5.92%-9.66%12
ODD2026-09-0915.70%+26.53%+10.83%11
NB2026-09-096.27%-5.69%-0.58%6
NAVN2026-09-0921.19%-21.75%+0.56%3
KR2026-09-094.72%-0.44%-4.28%12
KFY2026-09-094.70%-1.11%-3.59%12
JMKE2026-09-09—+7.44%——
COO2026-09-097.38%-14.67%+7.29%12
CNM2026-09-098.44%-5.58%-2.86%12
CHWY2026-09-098.94%-10.83%+1.89%12
AVAV2026-09-0911.50%+4.45%-7.05%12
ASO2026-09-095.29%+14.40%+9.11%12
AEO2026-09-0910.93%-13.97%+3.04%12
UNFI2026-09-0813.76%+2.28%-11.48%12
TTAN2026-09-088.35%-29.98%+21.63%7
OXM2026-09-0810.62%-0.71%-9.91%12
CASY2026-09-087.38%-14.24%+6.86%12
AVO2026-09-088.21%+4.27%-3.94%12
ABM2026-09-087.58%+7.55%-0.03%12
GME2026-09-0711.12%-1.41%-9.71%12
FCEL2026-09-0711.30%+18.80%+7.50%12
DBI2026-09-0716.75%-1.14%-15.61%12
WDAY2026-08-277.60%+5.76%-1.84%12
ULTA2026-08-278.29%-4.18%-4.11%12
TITN2026-08-278.73%-2.07%-6.66%12
S2026-08-279.73%-5.15%-4.58%12
RBRK2026-08-2711.73%-13.05%+1.32%9
PD2026-08-279.83%+9.50%-0.33%12
MRVL2026-08-2711.61%-10.28%-1.33%12
LUCK2026-08-277.96%+3.51%-4.45%12
IREN2026-08-2714.70%-12.53%-2.17%12
HRL2026-08-276.03%-10.25%+4.22%12
HQY2026-08-274.98%-10.56%+5.58%12
GAP2026-08-2713.98%+12.94%-1.04%12
ESTC2026-08-2716.26%+19.31%+3.05%12
DG2026-08-278.79%+2.53%-6.26%12
CSIQ2026-08-278.55%+0.79%-7.76%12
CHA2026-08-2711.98%+1.60%-10.38%4
BILI2026-08-276.32%+3.81%-2.51%12
BBY2026-08-277.58%-4.44%-3.14%12
AFRM2026-08-2713.97%+0.35%-13.62%12
ADSK2026-08-273.92%-3.67%-0.25%12
WOOF2026-08-2620.26%-1.81%-18.45%12
VSXY2026-08-2613.47%+2.69%-10.78%12
VEEV2026-08-267.31%+15.20%+7.89%12
URBN2026-08-2610.32%-5.02%-5.30%12
SNPS2026-08-266.83%+13.39%+6.56%12
SJM2026-08-265.48%+4.34%-1.14%12
SFL2026-08-264.76%-1.55%-3.21%12
PLAB2026-08-2615.40%+3.17%-12.23%12
PAHC2026-08-2611.39%+0.72%-10.67%12
P2026-08-2614.83%-8.87%-5.96%12
OLLI2026-08-264.34%-4.15%-0.19%12
OKTA2026-08-2613.21%+28.63%+15.42%12
NVDA2026-08-264.84%+8.74%+3.90%12
NTNX2026-08-269.99%+6.81%-3.18%12
NAT2026-08-264.01%-5.51%+1.50%12
HPQ2026-08-265.35%-2.92%-2.43%12
DY2026-08-269.93%-11.62%+1.69%12
DCI2026-08-264.84%+2.12%-2.72%12
CRWD2026-08-266.33%+20.50%+14.17%12
CRM2026-08-265.62%+22.58%+16.96%12
BURL2026-08-268.67%-8.02%-0.65%12
BBWI2026-08-269.61%+7.51%-2.10%12
AFYA2026-08-263.73%-0.28%-3.45%12
A2026-08-265.05%+1.68%-3.37%12
ZM2026-08-256.83%-7.03%+0.20%12
WSM2026-08-258.92%-1.27%-7.65%12
SMTC2026-08-2510.25%+10.41%+0.16%12
SLQT2026-08-2521.72%-29.38%+7.66%12
NCNO2026-08-259.82%+3.36%-6.46%12
MZTI2026-08-257.56%+1.37%-6.19%12
KSS2026-08-2514.49%-1.97%-12.52%12
JKS2026-08-255.64%-4.08%-1.56%12
INTU2026-08-256.44%-3.24%-3.20%12
HEI2026-08-255.78%-1.40%-4.38%12
FIVE2026-08-256.79%-2.04%-4.75%12
BOX2026-08-258.62%+1.18%-7.44%12
ANF2026-08-2512.60%+31.50%+18.90%12
XPEV2026-08-245.56%-8.53%+2.97%12
PVH2026-08-2410.31%-5.07%-5.24%12
PICS2026-08-2419.16%-0.46%-18.70%1
PDD2026-08-249.84%-1.48%-8.36%12
JOYY2026-08-246.00%+1.89%-4.11%12
GOTU2026-08-2414.65%+2.38%-12.27%8
DKS2026-08-248.03%-32.16%+24.13%12
UI2026-08-2114.10%-2.59%-11.51%12
BJ2026-08-215.89%+7.88%+1.99%12
WMT2026-08-204.73%-9.15%+4.42%12
SCSC2026-08-206.02%+9.67%+3.65%12
RERE2026-08-206.78%-11.11%+4.33%12
OSIS2026-08-208.18%-5.21%-2.97%12
NTES2026-08-205.26%-5.85%+0.59%12
MOV2026-08-205.94%-2.47%-3.47%12
HOV2026-08-2015.34%-7.47%-7.87%5
FUTU2026-08-204.28%+3.03%-1.25%12
FLO2026-08-204.60%-2.11%-2.49%12
DE2026-08-205.65%+6.94%+1.29%12
DAO2026-08-206.14%+1.26%-4.88%12
BKE2026-08-203.23%+1.34%-1.89%12
BABA2026-08-206.17%+1.26%-4.91%12
ATHM2026-08-203.25%-1.60%-1.65%12
ATAT2026-08-205.29%-7.43%+2.14%12
AAP2026-08-2012.16%-24.55%+12.39%12
ZIM2026-08-195.67%-3.79%-1.88%12
YMM2026-08-197.84%-1.14%-6.70%12
WOLF2026-08-1915.18%-9.42%-5.76%3
VIK2026-08-194.32%-7.65%+3.33%9
TJX2026-08-192.68%-4.21%+1.53%12
TGT2026-08-198.44%+4.28%-4.16%12
ROST2026-08-195.18%-3.13%-2.05%12
POET2026-08-196.29%-2.48%-3.81%12
PHVS2026-08-193.68%+0.33%-3.35%12
NDSN2026-08-194.00%+8.00%+4.00%12
LOW2026-08-192.59%+2.02%-0.57%12
KOD2026-08-198.55%-1.99%-6.56%12
KC2026-08-195.64%+14.11%+8.47%12
JBSS2026-08-197.90%-9.24%+1.34%7
INBX2026-08-195.49%+4.79%-0.70%8
IMNM2026-08-194.31%+1.89%-2.42%12
FLNG2026-08-193.63%+4.44%+0.81%12
EL2026-08-199.58%+16.30%+6.72%12
DVLT2026-08-198.15%-23.08%+14.93%12
COTY2026-08-196.78%-9.24%+2.46%12
CADL2026-08-195.63%+2.49%-3.14%12
BULL2026-08-194.20%+2.43%-1.77%3
BILL2026-08-1916.11%-0.65%-15.46%12
ALMS2026-08-197.62%-8.12%+0.50%9
ADI2026-08-194.27%-0.89%-3.38%12
ZBIO2026-08-185.39%+2.46%-2.93%7
XP2026-08-184.33%+5.29%+0.96%12
VNET2026-08-1810.49%-16.92%+6.43%12
TOL2026-08-184.35%+4.00%-0.35%12
RNW2026-08-183.71%+0.00%-3.71%12
MRCY2026-08-1813.30%-3.57%-9.73%12
LZB2026-08-188.22%-16.95%+8.73%12
KLAR2026-08-1818.85%-22.81%+3.96%3
KEYS2026-08-187.96%-6.32%-1.64%12
JKHY2026-08-182.86%+6.49%+3.63%12
IQ2026-08-186.73%-7.52%+0.79%12
IHS2026-08-187.12%+0.00%-7.12%12
HSAI2026-08-1815.32%-5.31%-10.01%12
HD2026-08-182.02%-0.12%-1.90%12
DRTS2026-08-184.20%+2.26%-1.94%12
CAAP2026-08-184.33%-2.92%-1.41%12
BZ2026-08-186.23%+1.61%-4.62%12
BIDU2026-08-184.10%-12.73%+8.63%12
AVBP2026-08-183.76%+3.48%-0.28%11
AUNA2026-08-184.02%+0.18%-3.84%9
AS2026-08-186.98%+3.22%-3.76%10
XMAX2026-08-17—-2.21%——
PNRG2026-08-174.95%+5.84%+0.89%2
MNTS2026-08-17—-12.40%——
FN2026-08-1711.41%-19.38%+7.97%12
DOYU2026-08-175.93%+1.06%-4.87%12
BBW2026-08-1711.55%-2.35%-9.20%12
ANNX2026-08-175.58%-0.19%-5.39%12
YSWY2026-08-13—+15.04%——
YSWY2026-08-13—+11.29%——
YETI2026-08-138.50%-10.56%+2.06%12
YETI2026-08-138.50%-10.56%+2.06%12
WWW2026-08-1313.73%+16.45%+2.72%12
WWW2026-08-1313.73%+10.08%-3.65%12
TPR2026-08-137.42%+0.46%-6.96%12
TPR2026-08-137.42%-16.49%+9.07%12
STNE2026-08-138.76%-4.50%-4.26%12
STNE2026-08-138.76%-6.65%-2.11%12
RNW2026-08-133.71%+0.00%-3.71%12
RNW2026-08-133.71%+0.00%-3.71%12
PSFE2026-08-1318.41%-16.06%-2.35%12
PSFE2026-08-1318.41%+15.14%-3.27%12
NU2026-08-136.04%+12.32%+6.28%12
NU2026-08-136.04%+12.32%+6.28%12
NTES2026-08-135.26%-1.18%-4.08%12
NOMD2026-08-134.62%+5.61%+0.99%12
NOMD2026-08-134.62%+5.61%+0.99%12
MWH2026-08-13—+6.35%——
MWH2026-08-13—+8.77%——
MH2026-08-1314.44%+12.93%-1.51%3
MH2026-08-1314.44%+16.98%+2.54%3
LGN2026-08-1311.73%-3.36%-8.37%3
LGN2026-08-1311.73%-7.92%-3.81%3
KLC2026-08-1319.71%-43.97%+24.26%7
KLC2026-08-1319.71%-46.17%+26.46%7
GMRS2026-08-13—+3.50%——
GMRS2026-08-13—+8.55%——
GLOB2026-08-1311.45%-8.81%-2.64%12
GLOB2026-08-1311.45%-8.81%-2.64%12
DLO2026-08-1313.99%-0.77%-13.22%12
DLO2026-08-1313.99%-4.00%-9.99%12
CAAP2026-08-134.33%-1.65%-2.68%12
CAAP2026-08-134.33%-1.65%-2.68%12
BN2026-08-133.53%-1.88%-1.65%7
BN2026-08-133.53%+0.94%-2.59%7
BIRK2026-08-136.93%+7.10%+0.17%11
BIRK2026-08-136.93%+11.59%+4.66%11
BILI2026-08-136.32%-0.97%-5.35%12
BAP2026-08-131.26%+3.80%+2.54%12
BAP2026-08-131.26%+2.99%+1.73%12
AVAH2026-08-1315.39%+24.75%+9.36%12
AVAH2026-08-1315.39%+24.75%+9.36%12
ARCO2026-08-135.29%+0.13%-5.16%12
ARCO2026-08-135.29%+3.04%-2.25%12
AMAT2026-08-135.31%-5.12%-0.19%12
AMAT2026-08-135.31%-5.12%-0.19%12
ALH2026-08-135.75%-1.70%-4.05%3
ALH2026-08-135.75%-0.58%-5.17%3
AIT2026-08-132.81%+1.51%-1.30%12
AIT2026-08-132.81%+1.51%-1.30%12
AEBI2026-08-135.06%-2.16%-2.90%4
AEBI2026-08-135.06%+5.39%+0.33%4
VIPS2026-08-126.02%-8.11%+2.09%12
VIPS2026-08-126.02%-8.11%+2.09%12
TBBB2026-08-125.68%+16.31%+10.63%8
TBBB2026-08-125.68%+16.31%+10.63%8
STUB2026-08-1215.69%-6.23%-9.46%3
STUB2026-08-1215.69%-10.07%-5.62%3
REZI2026-08-1211.02%-15.49%+4.47%12
REZI2026-08-1211.02%-20.42%+9.40%12
RDNW2026-08-1215.57%-4.04%-11.53%12
PLGO2026-08-125.50%-6.46%+0.96%12
PLGO2026-08-125.50%-6.46%+0.96%12
PFGC2026-08-124.03%-2.73%-1.30%12
PFGC2026-08-124.03%-5.61%+1.58%12
OCTV2026-08-121.17%-2.70%+1.53%1
OCTV2026-08-121.17%-2.70%+1.53%1
NBIS2026-08-128.32%+31.99%+23.67%6
NBIS2026-08-128.32%+34.14%+25.82%6
LESL2026-08-1225.41%-41.67%+16.26%12
KTB2026-08-129.71%+8.90%-0.81%12
KTB2026-08-129.71%+5.74%-3.97%12
KE2026-08-1211.24%+3.54%-7.70%12
KE2026-08-1211.24%+3.33%-7.91%12
HSAI2026-08-1215.32%+1.79%-13.53%12
HSAI2026-08-1215.32%+1.79%-13.53%12
GO2026-08-1213.49%+9.87%-3.62%12
GO2026-08-1213.49%+6.19%-7.30%12
EYE2026-08-1212.16%-13.64%+1.48%12
EYE2026-08-1212.16%-11.56%-0.60%12
EQPT2026-08-126.46%+8.41%+1.95%2
EQPT2026-08-126.46%+3.53%-2.93%2
ENS2026-08-127.28%+6.00%-1.28%12
ENS2026-08-127.28%+5.71%-1.57%12
EAT2026-08-127.79%+11.07%+3.28%12
EAT2026-08-127.79%-2.96%-4.83%12
DOX2026-08-123.33%+2.04%-1.29%12
DOX2026-08-123.24%+2.04%-1.20%12
DAO2026-08-126.14%+1.82%-4.32%12
DAO2026-08-126.14%+1.82%-4.32%12
CSCO2026-08-125.51%-8.40%+2.89%12
COHR2026-08-1210.70%-7.99%-2.71%12
COHR2026-08-1210.70%-7.99%-2.71%12
BHF2026-08-123.91%-0.47%-3.44%12
BHF2026-08-123.36%-0.47%-2.89%12
AMZE2026-08-1219.41%-3.29%-16.12%2
AMZE2026-08-1219.41%-3.29%-16.12%2
AMCR2026-08-125.18%-0.39%-4.79%12
AMCR2026-08-125.18%-1.77%-3.41%12
VSTS2026-08-1118.45%+2.09%-16.36%10
VSTS2026-08-1118.45%+2.09%-16.36%10
VG2026-08-1113.84%-3.79%-10.05%6
VG2026-08-1113.84%-7.29%-6.55%6
TME2026-08-118.84%-11.92%+3.08%12
TME2026-08-118.84%-11.92%+3.08%12
TECH2026-08-116.84%+0.11%-6.73%12
TECH2026-08-116.84%+0.11%-6.73%12
SWX2026-08-112.81%+1.78%-1.03%12
SWX2026-08-112.49%+1.78%-0.71%12
SMCI2026-08-1113.11%+19.02%+5.91%12
SMCI2026-08-1113.11%+19.02%+5.91%12
SFD2026-08-114.88%-6.96%+2.08%6
SFD2026-08-114.88%-2.29%-2.59%6
SE2026-08-1112.81%+11.59%-1.22%12
SE2026-08-1112.81%+14.56%+1.75%12
RXT2026-08-1116.02%+6.67%-9.35%12
RXT2026-08-1116.02%-8.03%-7.99%12
RDNW2026-08-1115.57%-1.09%-14.48%12
QXO2026-08-112.97%-2.28%-0.69%6
QXO2026-08-112.97%-2.28%-0.69%6
PAGS2026-08-114.37%-3.96%-0.41%12
PAGS2026-08-114.37%-3.96%-0.41%12
ONON2026-08-118.36%-20.29%+11.93%12
ONON2026-08-118.36%-20.29%+11.93%12
OGN2026-08-119.49%+0.29%-9.20%12
OGN2026-08-119.49%+0.29%-9.20%12
NVRI2026-08-117.95%-5.21%-2.74%12
NVRI2026-08-117.95%-7.91%-0.04%12
MRX2026-08-114.95%+17.47%+12.52%8
MRX2026-08-114.95%+17.47%+12.52%8
MIDD2026-08-115.21%-7.91%+2.70%12
MIDD2026-08-115.21%-7.91%+2.70%12
LITE2026-08-118.90%+13.63%+4.73%12
LITE2026-08-118.90%+13.63%+4.73%12
LEGN2026-08-113.38%+5.66%+2.28%12
LEGN2026-08-113.38%+5.66%+2.28%12
IFS2026-08-112.63%-6.04%+3.41%12
IFS2026-08-112.63%-6.04%+3.41%12
HUYA2026-08-117.31%-2.06%-5.25%12
HUYA2026-08-117.31%-2.06%-5.25%12
HRB2026-08-116.89%+16.09%+9.20%12
HRB2026-08-116.89%+16.09%+9.20%12
ECX2026-08-116.23%+0.00%-6.23%12
ECX2026-08-116.23%+0.00%-6.23%12
CRWV2026-08-1113.91%+19.28%+5.37%5
CRWV2026-08-1113.91%+22.16%+8.25%5
CCO2026-08-114.26%+0.00%-4.26%12
CCO2026-08-114.00%+0.00%-4.00%12
CAVA2026-08-118.38%+12.81%+4.43%12
CAVA2026-08-118.38%+14.24%+5.86%12
CAH2026-08-115.45%-2.54%-2.91%12
CAH2026-08-115.45%+1.30%-4.15%12
BGS2026-08-1112.92%+4.99%-7.93%12
BGS2026-08-1112.92%+4.99%-7.93%12
ARMK2026-08-115.00%+8.54%+3.54%12
ARMK2026-08-115.00%+8.54%+3.54%12
AGRO2026-08-114.89%-3.83%-1.06%7
AGRO2026-08-114.89%-3.83%-1.06%7
WBTN2026-08-1024.86%-6.83%-18.03%8
WBTN2026-08-1024.86%-6.83%-18.03%8
TTEC2026-08-1016.11%-32.16%+16.05%12
TTEC2026-08-1016.11%-25.75%+9.64%12
SPG2026-08-103.45%-0.46%-2.99%12
SPG2026-08-103.45%-0.46%-2.99%12

Why this page exists

Publishing base rates is cheap. Publishing what happened next is the part that can embarrass you, which is exactly why it is the part worth reading. Every row here was claimed in public before the print, and none is removed for being wrong.

These columns are generated by QuantNova, which records the reasoning behind every trading decision and scores it afterwards — the same way this page scores itself.

See how it works →